🌍 INTERNATIONAL
📊 All Eyes on U.S. Inflation Data This Week
The most critical event for global markets this week will be the April U.S. inflation release, scheduled for Tuesday at 15:30 (TRT).
Headline CPI is expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.1% in March.
Core CPI is also forecast to increase to 0.3% from 0.1%.
On a year-over-year basis, CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.4%.
🔍 Why it matters:
A stronger-than-expected inflation figure would reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, likely resulting in:
🇹🇷 DOMESTIC
📅 A Busy Week of Data: Retail Sales, Current Account, Budget Balance & Inflation Expectations
This week offers a full slate of macro indicators that will shape local market sentiment:
🛍️ Retail Sales – March
📆 Monday, 10:00No consensus forecast is available, but the data will be key to assessing Q1 domestic demand.
January: +12.6%
February: +12.2%
💸 Current Account – March
📆 Tuesday, 10:00Expected deficit: $3.9 billion
In line with forecasts, this would bring the 12-month rolling deficit down from $12.8B to $12.6B.
🧾 Central Government Budget Balance – April
📆 Thursday, 11:00No market expectations published.
April 2024: TRY 177.8B budget deficit
TRY 63.8B primary deficit
📌 Focus point:
Whether the budget gap continues to worsen versus last year and if the 12-month deficit (currently >4.0% of GDP) shows signs of narrowing toward the year-end target of 3.1%.
📈 Market Participants Survey – May
📆 FridayFollowing the below-expectation April inflation print, this survey will reveal shifts in:
Year-end CPI forecasts
Weekly repo rate expectations
As of April:
Year-end inflation expectation: 30.0%
12-month forward inflation expectation: 25.6%