Due to the holiday break, key monetary indicators were released with a delay and published yesterday. According to the latest data:
In the week of March 21, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) saw a decline of $8 billion in gross reserves.
In the week of March 28, reserves dropped another $6.6 billion, falling to $156.5 billion.
Of this decline, $7.7 billion came from FX reserves, while gold reserves increased by $1.1 billion.
In total, gross FX reserves fell by $16.4 billion over two weeks.
Net reserves, calculated by subtracting total liabilities from total assets, dropped from $66.4 billion on March 14 to $50.5 billion by March 28. After adjusting for:
$18.3 billion in CBRT swaps with banks (subtracted)
$1.4 billion in reverse swap liquidity (added)
We estimate the CBRT’s net FX position to be $32.2 billion. (Note: This does not include NDF transactions as they do not involve actual FX delivery.)
➡️ Total change in FX position (as of March 28):
Gross FX reserves: -$16.5 billion
Net reserves: -$15.8 billion
Swap stock: -$9.85 billion
Reverse swaps: -$9.76 billion
Total FX position erosion: -$35.5 billion
Extending the analysis to April 4, we estimate the CBRT's FX position fell to $28.3 billion, marking a total decline of $40.7 billion compared to March 14. Daily balance sheet data suggests aggressive FX sales largely ceased by April 2.